「粒子モデルで暴落予測」


「粒子モデルで暴落予測」 高安美佐子・東京工業大准教授
2014/1/3 2:00日本経済新聞 電子版

 市場の価格の値動きを自然科学の方法で観察すると何がわかるのか。相場の過熱感といった感覚はこれまでベテランの市場関係者の経験知と考えられてきたが、物理学の分析手法を用いると定量的にわかる可能性が出てきた。物理学者で市場の価格の動きを研究する東京工業大学の高安美佐子准教授に聞いた。

東京工業大学の高安美佐子准教授

 ――価格データを使ってどんな研究をしていますか。

 「ティックデータ(約定ごとの最小の値動き)を分析すると、価格の動きは3つに分類できることがわかった。1つはコインを投げ上げて2分の1の確率で裏と表が出るようなランダムウォークと呼ばれる動き。2つ目は指数関数的な動き、3つ目は2重指数関数的な動きだ。指数関数的な動きは2000年のインターネット(IT)バブル、アフリカのジンバブエの超インフレは2重指数関数型が当てはまる。3つの動きを内包する数式モデルがあることを見つけた」

 ――従来の金融理論では、市場価格はランダムウォークだと言われていました。

 「実際にモデルをコンピューターで計算すると、ランダムウォークばかりではなく、値動きが過去の平均価格に引き寄せられる安定的な時期と、平均価格から離れる不安定な時期を粒子のように行ったり来たりしていることがわかった。この粒子の往来は相場の流れに乗る『順張り』や流れの逆を行く『逆張り』の手法を持つディーラーになぞらえることができる。実際の市場のディーラーに相当する、異なった売買戦略を持つ複数のモデル粒子をコンピューターの中に置いて、未来が予想できたモデル粒子が残るようにシミュレーションを繰り返す。こうして導き出された方程式が開発した『PUCKモデル』だ。不安定な時期はボールが坂道を転げるように、価格が急変動する。市場が安定しているかを定量的に評価し、暴落といった価格の急変動のリスクを直前に推計することができる」

 ――わかってきたことは。

 「『逆張り』投資家が多いときは市場は安定し、『順張り』や短期的な投資家が増えると価格は不安定になることが数式から読み解けた。『PUCKモデル』を使えば、これまで市場参加者の経験に頼ってきた相場が過熱しているといった感覚が定量的に把握できるようになり、運用機関のリスク管理に役立つ」

 ――物理学の経済への応用が広がっています。

 「当研究室では、ソーシャルメディアに書き込まれたどういう言葉に対して、金融市場が敏感に反応したのかといった分析や、個別企業の取引関係と財務データから、地域でどの企業が重要な位置を占めているかといった分析も手掛けている。ブログやツイッターなどのソーシャルメディアの普及で、従来は難しかった人の心の動きがリアルタイムに観測できるようになった。あらゆるデータが観測できるようになることで世の中の動きを物理現象として説明できるようになると考えている」


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