エリオット波動2


エリオット波動2
エリオット波動における通常形では無いものについて触れたいと思います。

まずはエクステンションですね、こちらは1、3、5波のいずれかで起こる事が多く、波動が更に延びるといった現象になります。
こちらの現象が起こる場合、1、3、5波のいずれかで一度といった事が多い形です。
エクステンションとは1、3、5波のうちの一つが、更に細かな5波動を形成する状態を指します。

チャートはオージー/ドルの4時間足になります。

4波が1波の高値を下回らなかった事で、4波動形成を確認、3波が一番小さくなる事は無い、の条件から5波の長さも合っている事で、こちらの5波目の形成終了後、a波を狙いに行くトレードに切り替える所ですが、5波目形成の後に高値を更新する動きとなっていますね。

つまり、基本の定義から外れたという事がこの時点で分かります。
エクステンションの定義は1、3、5波のうちの一つが、更に細かな5波動を形成、こちらのチャートの場合ですと、5波目だと思っていた位置を更新した波動が「更に細かな5波動目だった」という事になります。

したがって、チャートの見方はこのように変わります。

①、②、③、④、⑤のエクステンションを一つの波動と見て、こちらを3波と見なす形になりますね。
こちらを知っていて有利な点は、更なる上昇を考える事が出来るといった所ですね。
またa波を狙うトレードに警戒の意識を持つ事が出来るといった点です。
基本となる上昇5波、下降3波しか知らなかった場合、③の時点で5波形成終了といった頭が強くなってしまいます。

情報が無いのですから、⑤の高値更新の動きはなんだろう、と思いつつも売り場のみを探す形のトレードになっている事でしょうね。
実際の4波をa波だと思い込んでいる事で、下へのエクスパンションについていってしまう、といったリスクを取る可能性が高まってしまうという事になります。

エクステンションは1、3、5波のいずれかに入っている事がかなり多い為、エリオット波動を使用するに当って、備えておいた方が良い知識だと言えます。
また、エクステンションが1、3、5波のいずれかの一つにしか入っていないのであれば、逆手に取った予想を行う事が出来るのですよね。

1波、3波で通常の波動が形成されるようであれば、5波目でエクステンションする可能性を考える事が出来ますし、1波目、3波目でエクステンションするようなら、5波目のエクステンションは無いと考える事が出来きるという事になりますね。

基本パターンに当てはまらないものの次がフェイラーですね。
こちらは3波を5波が超えられなかったパターンを指します。
下降トレンドでは3波目の安値を割る事が出来なかった状態を指す形ですね。

ダブルトップ、ダブルボトムと言われる形となり、相場の転換として見られたりもする形です。
3波の高値を更新する事が出来なかったのを見て、こちらの可能性を考える形となりますね。
3波の高値を更新できずに下げて来るようなら、その後の押しの弱さを確認後にa波を狙いに行く形ですね。
ターゲットは4波で作られた安値という事になり、こちらを下に抜けて行くようならセオリー通り下へのエクスパンションについて行く、といったトレードを考える事が出来ます。

次はイレギュラートップの紹介になりますね。
こちらは5波の高値をb波が超えてしまうといった状況ですね。
上昇意欲の強いトレンドが形成されている時に起こる事がありますが、こちらを見分ける事は非常に難しいといった所ですね。
エクステンションに考えが行ってしまう事で、結果的にイレギュラートップだったのではないかな、といった見方になる事が多い感じです。

次に斜行三角形のダイアゴナルトライアングル、こちらはウェッジと呼ばれるフォーメーションパターンで5波、またはC波のみに現れる特殊な形ですね。

エクステンション同様一つの波動が更に細かな5波を形成する形ですね。
斜行三角形の形状を取るようならダイアゴナルトライアングルの可能性を考える形となります。
ダイアゴナルトライアングルはトレンドの終わりを示すものとされていますので、こちらが形成された時点で天井付近、底付近に現在いるといった見方を行う事が出来るようになるのですよね。

波動の見方は慣れるまでに時間が掛かる上、見る人によって捉え方が異なるといった形ですので、エリオット波動に対しては否定的な意見も多いです。
ただ、市場が意識している材料である事に間違いはなく、個人的には使えるものだと捉えていますね。
市場が意識しているのであれば意識する必要がありますし、他の指標、経済状況と合わせる事で、十分武器になると考えています。


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