ブレイクアウトと押し目買い どっちを狙うべきなのか


ブレイクアウトと押し目買い
どっちを狙うべきなのか

■山を狙うのがブレイクアウト、谷を狙うのが押し目買い

 FXの手法にはいろいろあるが、すごく大ざっぱにいうと「ブレイクアウト」と、「押し目買い・戻り売り」のふたつがある。このふたつ、何が違うかというと「山を狙うか、谷を狙うか」だ。

 たとえば上昇トレンドの場合。上昇トレンドといっても、一直線に上がるわけじゃなくて、小さな山(高値)や谷(安値)を作りながら上がっていく。前回の山を越えて、新しい山ができそうだなという時に買うのが「ブレイクアウト」の考え方だ。ブレイクアウト狙いでは、前回の山に引いた抵抗線を突破したところで新規の買い注文を入れる。

■逆指値を使うのがブレイクアウト、指値は押し目買い

 一方、谷のところで買うのが「押し目買い」。上昇トレンドの途中にできる安値(押し目)を狙って買っていくやり方だ。売りの場合は下落トレンドの途中にできる高値(戻り高値)で売っていくから「戻り売り」と呼ばれる。

 買いのポイントで分類するなら、高値を買うのがブレイクアウトで、安値を買うのが押し目買い。上がっているときに買うのがブレイクアウトで、下がっているときに反転を期待して買うのが押し目買い。

 注文方法で分けるなら、逆指値を使って今よりも高いレートで買おうとするのがブレイクアウトで、指値を使って今よりも安い値段で買おうとするのが押し目買いだ。このふたつ、どちらが正解というわけじゃなくて、上手な人ほど、相場の展開で使い分けている。
■「押し目」の判断はトレンドラインや移動平均線で

 さて、押し目買いで難しいのは、どこが押し目なのかの判断。「ここが押し目かな」と思って買ったのに、もっと深い押し目があった……なんていうのはよくあるし、そのままトレンドが転換してしまうことだってある。百発百中の押し目買い・戻り売りの判断基準なんてないから、ある程度の負けは必要経費と割り切ろう。

 押し目買いや戻り売りの根拠として、多くの人が頼っているのが移動平均線や一目均衡表、トレンドラインだ。上昇トレンドの途中、「移動平均線まで落ちてきたら押し目買いのチャンスかな」と考えたり、一目均衡表の基準線やトレンドラインまで戻ってきたところで戻り売りしてみたり。どんな基準で押し目買い・戻り売りをするのがいいか、いろんな人のやり方を参考にしてみよう。

次の記事>> FXで本当は大切な「第3の分析方法」とは?

本当に勝っている投資家がどこに着目して、どんなトレードをしているのか? それを知れば、勝てるトレーダーになれるかも!
ここでは、【レートで勝つ!】トレーダーの代表、ディーラー歴30年の超ベテラン水上紀行さんをご紹介します!

外国為替ストラテジスト。1978年三和銀行(現・三菱東京UFJ銀行)入行。1983年よりロンドン、東京、ニューヨークで為替ディーラーとして活躍。東京外国為替市場で「三和の水上」の名を轟かす。1995年より外資系銀行に転身、外国為替部長要職などを経て現在は個人としてディールするほか、個人投資家向けの情報配信などを手がける。

 「相場の分析ではテクニカル分析やファンダメンタルズ分析が二本柱とされますが、三本目の柱となるのが『値動き分析』なんです」

関連記事≫「テクニカル分析とファンダメンタルズ分析、どちらが有効か?」

 耳慣れない言葉を口にするのはディーラー歴30年の超ベテラン・水上紀行さん。世界の三大為替市場である東京、ロンドン、ニューヨークを舞台に活躍してきた一流ディーラーだ。

 「FXの取引ツールには為替レートが表示された画面があります。チカチカしているあの動き方から為替レートの動き方を予測できるんです」

 その画面は「プライスボード」と呼ばれたり、「為替ボード」と呼ばれたりするが、どんな取引ツールにも必ずついている。会社によっては、上がると赤く、下がると青く光ったりもする。あの光り方、チカチカがポイントなのだ。

プライスボード(LION FXより)
■チカチカ、ピコピコで動き方がわかる?!

 「値動き分析はチャートでもできます。チャートを見ていると為替レートの動きに合わせて右端のローソク足がピコピコと伸びたり縮んだりしていますよね。あのピコピコにも、プライスボードのチカチカを見るのと同じ効果があります」

 ザイFX!のチャートは1分間隔での更新なので、ローソク足はピコピコと伸び縮みしないが、FX会社のチャートならリアルタイム更新。チャートが伸び縮みしているのがわかるはず。あのチカチカにピコピコから、どんなことが読み取れるのだろう。

 「為替市場に参加している人が、買いポジションを多く持っているのか、売りポジションを多く持っているのかがわかったり、『この価格が抵抗線になっているんだな』と気づけたりするんです」
■相場が急騰・急落するメカニズム

 株のように単一の市場がない為替では、全体のポジション状況を正確に示す指標がない。それを値動き分析によって知ろうというのが水上さんの考え方。でも、そもそもの話、全体のポジション状況を知ったところで何の役に立つのだろう……?

 「相場が急騰するときって、どんなときだと思いますか?」

 相場が上昇するということは、買いたい人がたくさんいるとき。みんなが目一杯買いたいと思うから急騰するってことでしょ?

 「違うんです。新規で買おうという人は合計100万ドル買うとしたら、一気に100万ドルは買いません。少しでも有利なレートで買おうと20万ドルずつ5回にわけて慎重に買ったりするんです。新規のポジションが入るときは、一気にたくさんの注文が入るわけではないので、相場の動き方もジリジリしたものになるんです」


■新規の取引は慎重に、損切りは目一杯全力で

 じゃあ、相場が急騰するのはどんなとき?

 「相場が急変するのは新規の買いや売りではなく、損切りによってなんです。損切りするとき、どんな心理状況でしょうか?」

 損切りするときって、自分の口座がヤバいとき。これ以上、含み損がふくらませたくないと焦っているはず。

 「だから逃げるときは目一杯逃げるんです。売りのポジションを100万ドル持っていたら、100万ドルすべてを一気に損切りする。売りポジションの損切り=買い戻しですから、100万ドルの損切りは100万ドルの買いです。つまり、売り手が一斉に損切りするようなとき、相場は急騰するんです」

 反対も同じ。相場が急落するときはどんなときか。もう想像できるはず。買い手が一斉に損切りして決済売りするとき、大量の売りが出て相場は急落するのだ。
■買い手が増えれば損切りの売りで急落する可能性が高まる

 「相場を動かす大きな力は損切りなんですよ」

 ここはすごく大切なポイント。よ~く覚えておこう。

 「損切りがいつ、どのくらい発生するのか、それを推測できるのが、市場参加者のポジション状況なんです。買い手がたくさんいれば、何かのきっかけで損切りが一斉に始まって急落するかもしれないし、売り手がたくさんいれば、その損切りで急騰するかもしれない。だから市場が今、買いと売り、どちらに偏っているかを推測することが必要なんです」

 この話、初心者にはちょっとイメージしずらいかも。まとめると、「相場が上がるときは売りがたまっているとき」、「相場が下がるときは買いがたまっているとき」だ。

■東京市場とロンドン市場の値動きのクセを利用する

 「いちばんカンタンにわかるのがチャートのパターンからの推測です。とくに、東京市場とロンドン市場の値動きのクセの違いは利用しやすいと思います」

 24時間地球のどこかで取引されている為替市場。時刻によってメインとなる都市があり、どの都市がメインとなるかによって特徴が異なる。

関連記事≫「為替市場は眠らない」

 「為替市場にはさまざまな参加者がいますが、東京市場は実需が中心。実需というのは、投資目的ではなく、貿易決済のために外貨を使う会社からの注文です」

 たとえば自動車メーカーや家電メーカーのような日本で作ったものを海外に売る輸出企業。彼らはアメリカで売り上げたドルを円に交換しようとする。逆に電力会社のように海外からLNGを買って発電する輸入企業もある。輸入企業は円をドルに交換しようとする。

 「ドルを売りたい輸出企業は少しでも高く売りたいから、上がったら売ろうとして相場を下げる力になります。外貨を買いたい輸入企業は少しでも安く買いたいから下がったら買おうとして相場を上げる力になります。実需中心の東京市場ではこうした企業の取引によって、値幅が広がりにくいんです」

■イヂワルなロンドンは東京に損切りさせる

 午前中と夜とでプライスボードを見比べてみると、チカチカの頻度がまったく違う。午前中はチカチカというよりはチカ…………チカ……チカとゆっくり価格が変わるが、夜になるとチカチカチカッと瞬時にレートが変わっていく。ロンドンやニューヨークの時間はそれだけ取引が活発だということ。

 値動きがじんわりで一定の値幅でおさまりやすい東京市場だが、それでもまったく方向性が出ないわけじゃなくて、なだらかな動きをしがち。じわじわと上がったり、ね。

 「日本時間の午後3時くらいになると早起きなロンドン勢が動き始めます。彼らが何をするかというと、ロンドンは投機的な取引を好みますから、東京勢の損切りをつけさせようとするんです。東京時間にジワジワ上がっていたら『買っている人が多い』ということですから、東京勢が置いた損切りを発動させようと、売り浴びせてくるんです」

関連記事≫「実需?投機筋?為替市場に集まる参加者の思惑」

 ロンドン勢が売りを入れると、相場はじんわり下がっていく。東京市場の投資家たちの損切りがつくと、相場は急落する。無事にそれを見届けたらロンドン勢は自分たちの売りポジションを買い戻して、ひと仕事終了というわけだ。

■チカチカ、ピコピコで支持線、抵抗線がわかる

 損切りがどこにあるか。チャートに書いてあるわけじゃない。

 「値動き分析によってわかるんです。チカチカと動くプライスボードを見ていると、どこが節目なのか見えてきます。1ドル98円60銭ほどからジワジワ下げてきたけど、どうも50銭を割り込めないなんていうことがよくあります。そのときは50銭に大口の損切りが置いてあり、損切りを置いた人たちが『50銭は割らせないぞ』と防戦買いしているのかもしれないな、と推測できるんです」

 50銭を割ったら損切りになってしまうから、下げさせまいとする買い手が50銭の少し上で買っていくのが「防戦買い」。でも、逆に言えば50銭を割ったら損切りが発動して急落する可能性があるということ。注目すべき支持線なわけだ。

関連記事≫「よく効く抵抗線と支持線の見つけ方とは?」

 あるいはローソク足のピコピコも同じ。過去の安値付近まで落ちてきたら、下に向かっていたローソク足のピコピコが止まったりする。その安値が節目になっているということ。

■「初心者用の相場」があるわけじゃない!

 「それはチャート上からもわかりますよね。損切りは直近の安値の下などに置かれやすいですから。ちなみに実需は、オーダー(注文)の置き方に傾向があります。外貨を売りたい輸出企業は20銭、40銭、60銭、80銭と20銭刻みのところに売り注文を置くことが多く、外貨を買いたい輸入企業は1ドル98円00銭など『ちょうど』のところか、50銭のところに置く傾向があるんです」

 それにしてもロンドン勢って、なんか性格悪くない……?

 「相場はそういうものなんです。『初心者向け相場』や『上級者用相場』があるわけではありません。初心者もプロも同じ土俵で勝負する弱肉強食の世界です。そこに参加しようとするなら身を守る術を身につけておかないといけません。そのひとつが値動き分析なんですよ」

 「私、初心者だから」って甘えは相場じゃ通用しない。しっかり勉強して、デモ口座や少額の取引で試してから、資金を投入しよう。焦りは禁物だ!

次の記事>> 為替レートの便利な単位「pips」とは?


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