メジャーSQとは。為替に与える影響は?


メジャーSQとは。為替に与える影響は?

2014/03/09 Sun. 18:10 [edit]

今週末の14日(金)はメジャーSQの算出日です。

これを控えて、今週の後半は日経平均の動きは荒くなることが予想されます。

 

僕を含めて、株に手を出していないFX投資家はメジャーSQに馴染みが薄いかもしれません。

メジャーSQとは何かというところと、為替に与える影響を、簡単にまとめてみました。

 

SQとは、先物やオプションの清算値

 

SQとはSpecial Quatationの略で、「特別清算指数」と呼ばれます。

SQが算出される日が、株価指数(日経平均、TOPIXなど)の先物やオプションの最終決済日となります。

 

株価指数の先物やオプションは、現物を取引するものではありません。

投機的な意味合いが強いので、期日が来る前に売買してポジションを清算するのが普通ですが、

もちろん、期日まで持ち続けている投資家もいます。

 

そうしたポジションは、最終的には強制的に「ある値」で決済されることになります。

その「ある値」、つまり清算値がSQ値です。

 

オプション取引は、毎月第2金曜日にSQ日が訪れます。

一方、先物取引のSQ日は、3,6,9,12月の第2金曜日となっており、

その先物とオプションのSQが重なる時が、「メジャーSQ」と呼ばれています。

当然ながら、オプションのSQだけの時よりも、メジャーSQの方が注目度が高まります。

 

なお、SQは第2金曜日の朝、日経225の寄付きの価格をもとに算出されます。

そのため、取引の最終日は前日までということになります。

 

SQで株価が動く理由① 清算値を上昇させたい、下落させたいという思惑

 

SQが迫った水、木曜日には、株価が乱高下しやすくなります。

その理由としては、まず、清算値への思惑が絡んだ売買が入ってくる、ということが挙げられます。

 

例えば、先物の買いポジションを持っている人は、

清算値が高ければ高いほど利益が上がるわけですから、清算値を高めたいと思います。

そのために、単純な方法として、株価の買い注文を入れてくるわけです。

 

もちろん、その逆も然りで、そうした両者のせめぎ合いがSQに向けて行われることで、

株価の売買高が膨らみ、荒っぽい動きになってきます。

 

SQで株価が動く理由② 裁定取引の清算

 

もう1つの大きな理由として、よく説明されるのが裁定取引です。

いわゆる「サヤ取り」と言われる取引です。これはSQ当日の株価の動きに影響します。

 

例えば、日経平均(現物)よりも先物の方が割高だった場合、

割安な現物を買って、割高な先物を売るという動きが活発になります。

 

そうして膨れ上がった裁定取引のポジションは、SQの際に一斉に清算されることになります。

つまり、現物の買い、先物の売りのポジションが膨れ上がっていた場合、

SQ当日は、一斉に現物の売りがなされることになり、株価の下落につながります。

 

裁定取引に関わる状況は、東京証券取引所のHPでも確認できます。

統計資料 プログラム売買・裁定取引(東証HP)

裁定取引の現物のポジションの買いが売りよりも多く残っている場合、

上記の理由から、SQ日には株価が下落しやすくなります。

 

SQが為替に与える影響は?

 

SQが迫ってくると、日経平均が大きく動きやすいので、相関性の高いドル円も影響されます。

過去4回のSQの前々日からの日経平均、ドル円の動きを調べてみました↓

 

<過去のメジャーSQ時の日経平均の動き(始値と終値の差)>

2013年12月 ⇒ 水曜日:±0円、木曜日:-30円、金曜日:+90円※

※12/13(金)は、9時台は下落、10時過ぎから反転上昇

2013年9月 ⇒ 水曜日:-90円、木曜日:-10円、金曜日:+90円

2013年6月 ⇒ 水曜日:+200円、木曜日:-600円、金曜日:+20円

2013年3月 ⇒ 水曜日:- 10円、木曜日: +50円、金曜日:+130円

 

<過去のメジャーSQ時のドル円の動き(始値と終値の差)>

2013年12月 ⇒ 水曜日:-40pips、木曜日:+90pips、金曜日:-15pips※

※12/13(金)は、9時台は下落、10時過ぎから反転上昇、NY時間に入った21時過ぎから急落

2013年9月 ⇒ 水曜日:-50pips、木曜日:-30pips、金曜日:-15pips

2013年6月 ⇒ 水曜日:±0pips、木曜日:-65pips、金曜日:-125pips

2013年3月 ⇒ 水曜日:+5pips、木曜日:±0pips、金曜日:-80pips

 

少しサンプルは少ないかもしれませんが、過去4回を見る限り、

日経平均は、水、木は下落しやすく、金は上昇しやすいようですね。

 

一方のドル円は、それほど相関性はないようです。

ドル円の場合は、ロンドン、ニューヨーク時間もありますからね。

東京時間では影響されても、ニューヨーク時間で覆されるというパターンがあるのでしょう。

 

前回の12月13日については、日経平均は、SQ算出直後は下落したものの、午後に回復。

ドル円も、東京時間は日経平均と連動して同じように動いていましたが、

米経済指標の結果を受けて、ニューヨーク時間で急落しました。

 

まぁ、結論から言えば、為替に関しては、それほど神経質にならなくてもよさそうです。

ただ、日経平均が週の後半に下落するようであれば、ドル円の上値も多少抑えられるかもしれません。

今週は、SQ絡みのニュースが多くなりそうなので、少し気にしていたいと思います。


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