時論公論 「米金融緩和見直しの波紋」


時論公論 「米金融緩和見直しの波紋」2013年09月05日 (木)

山田 伸二  解説委員
(前説)
世界経済を揺るがしたリーマンショックが起きて、5年になります。
この時以来取られた、アメリカの超金融緩和政策が近々見直される見通しです。
世界の金融資本市場は、これを睨んで大きく揺れ動いています。
そこで、これから、世界経済がどう変わり、日本経済はどんな影響を受けるのかを考えます。
(パラダイムの大転換)
世界経済は、大恐慌以来と言われた混乱を受けて、各国の政府と中央銀行がこれまでに例の無い財政支出と金融緩和に踏切り、最悪の事態は避けられました。
この中で、いち早く回復したアメリカは、将来バブルを招く恐れがあるとして金融政策を見直すことになったもので、いわば、集中治療室から個室の病棟に移すようなものでしょうか。
本来ならば喜ぶべきですが、世界の市場は大揺れです。
お上による「おんぶにだっこの状態」から、いざ独り立ちしようとすると、自信が持てないという所でしょうか。

(政策見直し)
そこで、金融政策の中身です。
リーマンショックの後、アメリカの中央銀行FRBは、政策金利をゼロに下げた後、量的緩和政策をとって、毎月850億ドル8兆円もの金融資産を買い続けています。
治療で言えば、点滴で栄養剤を送り続けるような物です。
 
j130905_01_0.jpg
そして、この17日と18日の政策決定会合で、いよいよ政策の転換に踏み切るのではないかという見方が広がっています。
具体的には、金融資産の買い入れ額を徐々に減らし、来年半ばには、買い入れ自体を止める考えです。
それでは、アメリカ経済への影響はどうでしょうか。
FRBは、金利はゼロで据え置いて金融緩和を続け、引き締めでは無いと強調します。
量的緩和の効果について、私は、株価や住宅価格を押し上げ、こうした資産効果で、消費を拡大した事は認めます。
しかし、企業の投資は期待外れだったし、雇用の問題は改善されないなど、構造問題を解決するには力不足でした。
効果は限られるから、多少政策を見直しても、景気の足を引っ張る事は無さそうです。
 
(世界経済への影響)
問題は、アメリカより世界、特に新興国への影響です。
これまで、投資家は、成長著しい新興国を中心に投資を続け、これらの国々は活況を呈してきました。
しかし、潮目が変わったとして、投資を見合わせ、更に、資金を引き揚げ始めており、経済の弱い国の通貨や株が売られ続けています。
 
j130905_02_1_.jpg

ご覧頂いているのは日米の株価で、東京市場では一時20%下げました。
インドネシアやトルコでも、20%程下がっています。
一方、通貨もインドやブラジル、インドネシアで5月以来15%程下がっています。
通貨安からインフレの懸念が広がり、ブラジルやインドネシア、トルコは金利の引き上げを余儀なくされており、景気の足を引っ張る恐れもあり、四面楚歌の状態です。
 
(1997年)
今の動きから、私は1997年の経済危機を思い出します。
当時、経済のグローバル化が一気に進み、将来性に賭けて大量の資金がアジアやロシアに流れ込み、この地域では、大変な勢いで経済が拡大しました。
しかし、タイで経済の勢いを失ったのを見るやいなや、投資家は一斉に資金を引き揚げて通貨は暴落、混乱がアジア各国に広がりました。
いわゆるアジアの通貨危機で、金融危機はロシアにも飛び火しました。
日本もこの余波を受け、北海道拓殖銀行や山一証券が破綻するなど、戦後初の金融危機に見舞われました。
 
j130905_03.jpg
外国からお金が流れ込めば繁栄を謳歌できるけど、一転、資金が外国に流れ出すと未曾有の混乱に陥る、今回も、同じパターンです。
最近の動きについてBNPパリバ証券の河野龍太郎さんは、
「先進国から資本が新興国に流れてバブルを作り、今、新興国バブルは崩壊過程に入っている」と言います。
 
(違い)
しかし、当時と比べると、2つ、大きな違いがあります。
第1に、投資の中身です。
 
j130905_04.jpg
新興国への資金の流れを見ると、一昨年には四半期毎に4000億ドルという巨額な資金が入ってきました。
この中身ですが、前回は株や債券と言った金融資産への投資が多く、こうした資産を叩き売って、一瞬にして資金が新興国から流れ出しました。
これに対して、今回は工場の建設などと言った直接投資が多く、投資家と新興国の繋がりが深くなっている分、前回の様な恐れは少ないでしょう。
第2に、前回はアジアの新興国は、投機家が自国の通貨を売り浴びせたのに対して、なすすべもありませんでしたが、今は外貨準備などで潤沢な資金があります。
と言うわけで、97年の様なパニック的な動きになる可能性は薄いと思います。
しかし、新興国バブルが崩壊したという見方には説得力があり、楽観は禁物です。
 
(秩序の変化)
金融政策を変えると言う事はお金の流れを変え、経済の枠組みを変えることです。
こうした時には,大なり小なり波乱は避けられないので,不測の事態には十分注意する必要があります。
新興国からお金が逃げ出す一方、アメリカからも資金が流れ出しており、先月には、海外の投資家は株や国債を778億ドル70兆円も売り越しています。
お金が神経質な動きを続ける中IMF国際通貨基金のラガルド専務理事は、「量的緩和縮小は『思わぬ展開をもたらす』恐れがある」と、慎重な対応を呼びかけています。
 
j130905_05.jpg
5日から始まるG20・主要20カ国の首脳会議では、アメリカと新興国がどれだけ対話を深める事ができるかが焦点となるでしょう。
しかし、緩和縮小が先送りされたとしても,年内には見直されることは必死で、非常時の体制から平常の体制に戻るまで、市場の混乱は未だしばらく続きそうです。
 
(日本への影響)
私の心配は、新興国の経済が鈍化する事と為替の動きです。
まず、新興国の経済ですが、リーマンショックの後、アジアなどの新興国が世界経済を引っ張ってきました。
しかし、今の混乱が続けば、景気が鈍化するのは必至です。
IMFは、今年の世界の実質成長率を3.1%と見ています。この中で、新興国は5%と、春先より0.3%も下方修正しており、ひと頃は二桁の成長を遂げていた勢いはありません。
日本企業の決算でも、建設機械や電機等は利益が減っており、アジアとの結びつきがとりわけ強い日本は、影響を受ける事は間違いありません。
と言うわけで、私達も、新興国頼みの経済運営、企業経営は、見直しを迫られそうです。
 
(為替の動向は)
一方、為替の動きです。
このところの円安で輸出業者は収益が改善しましたが、円高に戻れば元の木阿弥です。
アメリカでは、長期金利がじりじり上がっており、日本の金利がそのままだと金利差が広がって、投資資金はアメリカに向かい、ドル高円安になる理屈です。
しかし、以前にFRBが量的緩和を打ち切った時には、市場は織り込み済みと言うから金利が下がっており、理屈通りに行くかは判りません。
しかも、最近の相場は、こうした金利差よりも世界経済が好調かどうかで動いています。
景気が良いと、大量に安い金利で調達できる日本で資金を用意して、世界中に投資するので円安に動きます。
逆に、景気が悪いと投資を手じまって日本にお金を戻すから、円高に動きます。
新興国の経済がぱっとしないと、資金の流れは、日本に戻ってくる、つまり円高になる可能性の方が強くなりそうです。
 
j130905_06.jpg
と言う訳で、新興国の景気は、日本経済に対し、直接影響するだけで無く、為替を通して波及するので、新興国の動きは要注意です。
 
(今回の教訓)
さて、足下の日本経済は、政府の支出や消費税の引き上げを見通した駆け込み需要が見込めるので、世界経済が多少揺れ動いても、直ちに低迷する事は無いでしょう。
しかし、こうした要素は早晩はげ落ちて行くわけで、
何もしないと、再び泥沼にはまることになるでしょう。
アベノミクスの第3の矢、成長戦略を一刻も早く具体化すると共に、企業も将来を見通した展開を積極的に繰り広げる必要があります。
今回、世界経済に突きつけられた「お上におんぶにだっこの経済から,如何に自立するか」という問題に対して、私達自身も、きちんとした答えを出さなければ成りません。

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    対シリア軍事行動 米議会の情勢は&同時多発テロから12年. Watch later. 対シリア軍事行動 米議会の情勢は&同時 


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