未決済の注文とポジション


FX初心者のための糞ポジチェッカーの使い方

 FX初心者のためにオーダーブック(別名:糞ポジチェッカー)を使ったトレード方法や相場展開の予想の立て方について紹介しています。

オーダーブック(別名:糞ポジチェッカー)は、FX会社が顧客の取引や注文しているポジションについて公開しているもので、会社によってデータは異なりますが、個人投資家のポジションを知る上で大変役にたつものです。

糞ポジチェッカーの操作画面

 「FX初心者のための糞ポジチェッカーの使い方」について以下の構成で説明・解説をしています。

◇「FX初心者のための糞ポジチェッカーの使い方」関連用語
スプレッド
スワップ
テクニカル
ファンダメンタルズ
レバレッジ

保有中のポジションから導き出せる取引戦略

 オーダーブック(別名:糞ポジチェッカー)は、いくつかのFX会社によって提供されていますが、ここでは海外のFX会社であるOANDAによって提供されているものを使用しながら紹介していきたいと思います(OANDAの糞ポジチェッカーはこちらから)。

それでは実際にオーダーブックが一体どういったものかを見ていくところから始めていきたいと思います。まずは下のオーダーブックをご覧ください。

ドル円のくそポジチェッカーの画面

 上はFX会社「OANDA」が抱えている顧客のドル円(米ドル/円)についてのオーダーブックで、左に注文・右に保有中のポジションがグラフ化されています。

まずは、右の保有中のポジションについて青色とオレンジ色で表示されていますが、青色の部分でポジションを抱えている人と言うのは保有ポジションが赤字、つまり含み損の状態となっており、反対にオレンジ色でポジションを持っている人と言うのは黒字、つまり含み益が発生している状態を示しています。

またグラフの大きさは、大きければ大きいほど大金でのポジションの集まりがある事を示しており、小さくなればなるほど小額のポジションしか顧客が保有していない事を示しています。

そして、保有中ポジションの内の右側が保有中のロング(買い)ポジションを示し、左側がショート(売り)ポジションを示しています。

この上のオーダーブックを見て頂けると分かると思いますが、ロングポジションが圧倒的にショートポジションよりも大きく積み重なっている事が分かります。

これは、個人トレーダーのポジションがドル円のロング(買い)に集中している事を意味しています。

このようなオーダーブックはある典型的な相場展開を示唆しており、比較的戦略が立てやすい相場状況を示しています。

個人トレーダーの多くは「損切りができない(しない)」スタイルでトレードをしている事が多く、1度抱えたポジションはプラスになるまで抱え続ける(塩漬け)と言う方が沢山いらっしゃいます。

上のようなロング偏ったポジションは正にその典型で、上がれば個人トレーダーの利益確定の売りも入りますし、その個人トレーダーに利益確定はさせまいとして、ヘッジファンドが狙って売りにくる事が考えられます。

つまりは、上値が重いと言う状況が考えられるため、上げてきた相場に対して(高値)売りと言う戦略が比較的やり易い状態を示しています。

取引注文から考えられる相場の流れ

 次に、取引注文から相場の流れを読んでみたいと思います。まずは下のグラフ左の「未決済の注文」を見てください。

注文が示しているポジションの流れ

 注文グラフの見方は先ほどの保有中ポジションの時と全く同じなのですが、今度は少し意味が変わってきます。「未決済の注文」の中でも、赤く囲んだ箇所に注目してみてください。

オレンジ色で沢山の注文が入っている事が分かります。これは、まだ約定していない個人トレーダーの買い注文の山を示しているのです。

これが意味しているのは、先ほど保有中のポジションが偏っているために上昇しにくい事を紹介しましたが、注文が山となっている場合には、注文が約定した場合には、その約定したポジションが含み損となる方へと動く傾向にあり、約定しない場合には相場が注文の掛かる手前で反転する展開が散見されます。

上のオーダーブックの場合には98円で多くのロング注文が入っていますが、この個人トレーダーのロング注文が約定するならば、ヘッジファンドはそのポジションのストップを狙った売りを仕掛け97円や96円と言ったところまで下落させるケースが散見されます。

反対にこの注文が約定しない場合には、落としても98円には到達せずに99円付近で相場が急反転を見せて上昇していくなんて言うケースも見られます。

不自然な注文が示すトレードのツボ

 最後にオーダーブックの醍醐味である不自然な注文が示しているものの意味を紹介してみたいと思います。まずは下のオーダーブックで赤く囲んである箇所の注文に注目してください。

変な位置に注文が入っている様子

 現在の相場レートより上、つまり高い値段でのロング(買い)注文が入っていますね?ここで買うならば今買えば良いのに不自然ですよね?そこで、右の保有中ポジションの赤く囲んである箇所を見てください。

どうですか?ある程度まとまった売りポジションを個人トレーダーが保有している事が分かりまね?

ここで、感の良い方なら既にお気づきかと思いますが、この不自然な注文が示していたものは現在保有中のポジション(ショートポジション)の逆指値、つまりストップの可能性が大なのです。

これがストップを意味しているのであれば、だいたいの相場展開が読めてきます。

それは、誰かが損をすれば誰かが儲かるのがFXですから、相場は狙ってそのストップを刈り取りに行くと言うことです。

この相場が個人トレーダーのストップを刈り取りに行く場合、そのストップ注文の金額が大きければ大きいほどアカラサマなストップ刈りの動きを見せる事があります。

最後に残念ながらオーダーブックを利用してのトレードは決して100%とは言えません。しかし、他の個人投資家の思考を考えて自分の投資戦略を立てたり、相場予想を立てる事は脱FX初心者の早道となる事は言うまでもないでしょう。

FX初心者のための糞ポジチェッカーの使い方のまとめ

 これまでの「FX初心者のための糞ポジチェッカーの使い方」のまとめです。

  • 糞ポジチェッカーは他の個人投資家の動きから考察する
  • 偏ったポジションが生まれている場合には偏っている側が含み益になりにくい
  • 大きな注文は約定すれば含み損方向へ、約定しなければ反転のポイントとして目安になる
  • 不自然な注文は逆指値(ストップ)注文の可能性がある

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