窓埋めの有効性について【まとめ】


窓埋めの有効性について【まとめ】

6月 7th, 2013 No Comments

 

今まで調査してきた内容を以下にまとめた。

※これは個人的に調査したものである。記載されていることがすべて正しいとは限らない。

あくまでも参考資料・意見として読んでいただきたい。

なお、窓は「週明けの窓」に限る内容であり、指標発表などで開いた窓は調査対象外としている。

 

窓を利用したトレードの有効性について

概ね80%程度の確率で窓を埋める傾向にある。

窓を利用したトレードは有効な手段の1つと考えている。

 

【関連記事】

窓埋めの有効性について【序】

窓埋めの有効性について【破】

 

窓開け後の動き4パターン

1.寄り付きから窓を埋めるパターン(出現率 44%)

2.寄り付き後、窓と逆の方向に動いた後埋めるパターン(出現率 38%)

3.窓を半分程度埋めて反転するパターン(出現率 10%)

4.窓を埋めなしパターン(出現率 8%)

かなり高い確率で窓埋めが行われる。  (上記はユーロドルで1年間の窓を調査。2日経っても窓埋めしていないものは「窓埋めなしパターン」としてカウント)

寄り付き後、逆行せずに(すんなりと)窓を埋める確率は50%に満たない。  (逆行を見込んでトレードを行わないと勝率は50%もない)

 

【関連記事】

窓埋めの有効性について【P】

 

窓埋め後の動き

窓を埋めた後、反転する動きもよくみられるが、トレードに使えるほどの優位性は見られなかった

 

【関連記事】

窓埋めの有効性について【後】

 

 

トレンドと窓の関係

トレンドと逆行した窓はそうでない場合よりも埋めやすい。

 

【関連記事】

トレンドと窓埋めの関係について

 

FX業者によって月曜日の開始時刻が異なる

サクソバンク:朝3時(夏時間は4時)

主な海外業者:朝7時(夏時間は6時)

主な日本業者:朝7時(夏時間無し)

※業者によって異なることがある

・IGマーケッツは1時間早く始まるらしい

・ヒロセ通称は海外業者と同じく夏時間が適用されるらしい

など。

 

時間が異なる場合、「別のもの」と考えてトレードを行う方が良いと考えている。

※サクソバンクで窓埋めが完了したからといって、他の業者で同じ窓が開いて窓埋めが行われるわけではないし、一度埋めているからといって窓埋めの有効性が失われているわけではない。

あくまでも別のものと考えて他の業者の値動きは忘れて、トレードを行う業者のチャートに注目すべき。

 

今後の窓に関する調査について

調査はこれで終了とするが、週明けの窓チェックは今後も続ける予定である。

現在、窓を利用したEAの開発を行い稼働中である。今後もこのEAの改善は続けていく。

当ブログ内で紹介・公開するかどうかは今のところ決めていない。


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