FX初心者必見!トレンド判断の要!ダウ理論でこんなに勝てる!


私の主な手法はラインブレイクですが、

だからといって、

ブレイクしたらいつでも、
どこでもエントリーすればいいというわけではありません

そんなことをすれば、すぐにポジポジ病に陥り、
ロスカットの嵐となってしまうでしょう

では、エントリーしてもいいかどうかを
一体どこで判断すればいいのか?

その重要なポイントの一つに、ダウ理論があります。

ここでは、手法公開の補足的な意味も込めて
ダウ理論について、簡単に説明させていただきます。

ダウ理論とは?

多分、「ダウ理論」という言葉は、
聞いたことがある方が多いのではないでしょうか?

ダウ理論とは、チャールズ・ダウと言う方が最初に定説した、
チャート分析なのですが、 トレードをする上で、
目線を固定するために、とても大切な要素になってきます。

まず、こちらの画像を見てください。

20150510

201505102

201505103

201505104
201505102

アップトレンドとは、高値・安値共に切り上がっている状態。

ダウントレンドとは、安値・高値共に切り下がっている状態です。

そんなの、知っているよ!という方も多いかもしれませんね。(笑)

では、どのように目線を固定してトレードをしていけば良いのか?

201505103

なんだか難しそうな画像が出てきたように見えるかもしれませんが、
慣れてしまえばこちらのもので、
誰にでも簡単に判断できるようになりますので、ご安心を

ピンクの枠内を見てください。

まず、アップトレンド中に直近の高値(黄色丸&茶色ライン)
を上抜けて、新たな高値(赤丸)をつけたら、
それは「アップトレンド継続」を意味します。

この高値(赤丸)をつけた安値を 「押し安値」 と呼びます(紫丸)。

そして、ダウ理論では、
「この”押し安値”を下抜けない限りは、ロングで攻めていく」
という考え方をするのです。

逆に、緑のラインを下抜けてくるようだったら、
「アップトレンドは崩壊した」とみなします。

ダウントレンドでは、この逆です。

201505104

黄色丸(=茶色ライン)を下抜けたら、
ダウントレンドがまだ継続中ということ。

新たな安値(赤丸)ができる起点となった高値を、
「戻り高値」と呼びます(紫丸)。

そして、この戻り高値の緑のラインを上抜いてくるまでは、
ショートで攻めていく。

上抜けてくるようだったら、ダウントレンド崩壊とみなします。

あとは、その繰り返しです。

これは、どの時間足でも判断の仕方・見方は同じです。

実際のチャートに落とし込み、たくさんの数をこなして考えていけば、
嫌でも、慣れてきます!(笑)

是非、「目線の固定」を意識して、チャートを見てみてください

補足

ダウ理論については、ご理解いただけましたでしょうか?

ダウ理論の説明の中でも何回も
『目線』という言葉が出てきたと思いますが、

つまりは

今が上目線なのか、
下目線なのかを知ること

が大切というわけです。

それを理解するだけで、
エントリーポイントが大幅に絞られるはずです。

目線が定まっていれば、
完璧な下目線なのに、ロングエントリーなんて、
よほど反転するという強い根拠がない限りできませんからね。

ちなみに、ダウ理論にも種類があり、
違う捕らえ方を提唱される方もいます。

ただ、私が言いたいのは

『このダウ理論が絶対に正しい!!』

ではなく、

自分の考えをしっかり持ち、
ブレることがなければそれは正しいということ。

その時の、相場にあわせて、

今回はあのダウ理論、次はこっちのダウ理論

ではなく、

『私はこのダウ理論でいく!!』

と目線を固定することが大切ということです。


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