1ドル100円突破はなぜ起こったのか?「アベノミクス効果」と思い込みたいメディアの欺瞞


1ドル100円突破はなぜ起こったのか?「アベノミクス効果」と思い込みたいメディアの欺瞞

山田 順 | 作家、ジャーナリスト、出版プロデューサー2013年5月12日 1時59分

■「アベノミクス効果で円安」というより「米景気回復でドル高」

5月9日、ニューヨークの為替市場で、ドル・円相場が約4年ぶりに1ドル=100円の壁を突破した。そして10日には、東京市場で、ついに1ドル=101円台まで下落。100円の抵抗ラインをあっさり突破したことで、政府もマスコミも大歓迎。まるで、これで景気が回復するかのような騒ぎになった。

実際、5月11日付けの「読売新聞」の社説は次のように書いている。

《円安をテコに、自動車など日本の輸出企業は国際競争力が向上し、収益が拡大している。

外需主導で生産や設備投資が活発化すれば、雇用は改善し、消費など内需にも恩恵が波及しよう。こうした好循環による、本格的な景気回復に期待したい。》

こんなに浮かれていいのだろうか?

しかも、今回の円安100円突破を、どのマスコミも「アベノミクス効果」としている。しかし、本当にそうなのだろうか? アベノミクスのせいで、ここまで円安になったのだろうか?日本のマスコミはムードに流されやすくはないだろうか? それに、なぜ「円安になれば日本経済は復活する」と思い込んでいるのだろうか?

結論から書いてしまえば、今回の円安100円突破は、「アベノミクス効果で円安」というより「米景気回復でドル高」である。日本から見ると「円安」だが、そんな見方をしているのは日本だけだ。アメリカ、そして世界の市場関係者にとっては、常に基軸通貨のドルが基本だ。円は、数ある通貨のなかの一つに過ぎない。

その円がドルに対して安くなろうと、大した問題ではない。

■5月3日に発表された失業率の改善が引き金に

では現在、ドルはどんな流れのなかにあるのだろうか? ずばり、どの通貨に対してもドル高になるトレンドに入ったと言える。それは、米国の景気回復への期待が高まっていることと、FRBが金融緩和の出口を考え始めたこと。この2つの点が大きなポイントだ。

今年の初めは、米国経済はまだまだ低迷するという見方が強かった。発表される経済指標も予想を下回るものが多かった。しかし、5月3日に発表された4月のアメリカの失業率は7.5%。前の月より0.1ポイント改善。非農業部門の就労者数も16万5000人増加し、市場予想を上回ったので、そこからダウは一気に上昇し、1万5000ドルを超えてしまった。

つまり、今回の円安と東京市場の株価1万4000円台回復も、この米国雇用統計が直接の引き金なのだ。

■FRBの金融緩和策の縮小を示唆した連銀総裁

そこに追い打ちをかけたのが、5月9日に発表された米国の失業保険申請件数だった。失業件数の予想を上回る改善が示されると、NYダウはさらに上がった。ドルを買う動きも強まり、アメリカのエコノミストたちも景気回復を言う人間が多くなった。

もう一つ。市場関係者がドルに強気になったのは、フィラデルフィア連銀のプロッサー総裁が、FRBの金融緩和策の縮小(米国債とMBS購入プログラムの縮小)を示唆したからだ。

この発言は、結果的に、株式・為替市場を大きく動かした。

かねてから、「FRBはいつ金融緩和(QE)を止めるのか」が、市場関係者の注目の的になっていた。いわゆる出口戦略がいつ実施されるかだが、その期待をプロッサー総裁が口にしたのである。こうなると、米国の金利水準は上昇する可能性が高まる。

米国の金利が上昇すれば、海外の投資資金が米国の金融市場へ再び流入してくる。つまり、ドル高になるのは自然の流れである。当然、ヘッジファンドも動く。

■円安に浮かれていると大変なことになりかねない

1ドル101円になった後、日本のメディアは「105円、110円を目指す動きになる」「少なくとも120~130円まで行くだろう」と、エコノミストたちの予想を載せるようになった。

しかし、ここで忘れてはならないのは、繰り返すが「円安」ではなく「ドル高」ということだ。ドルが強くなっているだけなのだ。

今後、景気回復を受けてFRBが本当に出口戦略に出れば、米国の金利は、市場関係者の期待通り上がる。現在1.7%の米国債の10年物金利は上昇する。

となると、日米の金利差が拡大するわけだから、円より高利回りが見込めるドルに円資金は流れる。つまり、円からドルへのキャピタルフライトである。

このキャピタルフライトが大規模に起これば、どうなるだろうか?

もちろん、円安はさらに加速する。と同時に、日本国債は暴落し、日本の金利が高騰する可能性がある。そしてさらに、こうした流れが続けば、輸入価格の高騰によるインフレが起こり、それがさらに円安を進める。

アベノミクスによる黒田バズーカ砲は、収拾のつかない方向に向かうかもしれないのだ。

■1ドル100円突破で、債券市場は明らかに動揺

5月10日の国債市場は、長期金利の指標である新発10年債(328回債、表面利率0.6%)の利回りが一時0.70%となった。終値利回りは前日より0.105%高い0.695%まで上昇した。

これは、売りが膨らんで利回りが上がったことを意味する。その影響で、東証では相場の急激な変動を和らげるため、取引の一時停止措置を発動する場面もあった。1ドル100円突破で、明らかに、債券市場は動揺したわけだ。

マスコミはあまり報道しないが、こちらのほうが日本経済にとってはるかに大きなインパクトを持っている。実際問題として、日本の国債市場はすでに壊れているからだ。なにしろ、日銀が国債を7割も引き受けてしまうのだから、この先、輸入インフレで物価が予想以上に上がってきたら、どうなるかまったく予測できなくなってしまった。

■あのジョージ・ソロス氏も国債暴落を警告

ここで、黒田バズーカ砲(異次元金融緩和)の発表後、4月10日、中国・海南島で開催されたボーアオ経済会議で、ジョージ・ソロス氏が語ったことに、改めて注目する必要がある。ソロス氏は、「異次元金融緩和」を「リスクの高い実践だ」と批判し、次のように述べたからだ。

「日本政府は量的緩和の賭けにでたが、流動性の高い通貨供給でインフレが誘発されるだろう。金利は押し上げられ、国債の発行コストがかかり、持続不可能なレベルに陥没の恐れがある」とし、投資家が円のポジションを維持すると「通貨安により価値が下がるため円からのキャピタルフライトが起こるだろう」とし、日本国債の暴落の可能性も指摘したのだ。

ソロス氏は、安倍政権発足直後に円安を予測してドル投機を行い、2カ月ほどで約10億ドルを儲けている。かつてポンド売りでイングランド銀行を窮地に陥れた実績もある。通貨に関しては、彼の予測を上回るものはない。

いまや日本のマスコミはほとんどが、アベノミクス応援メディアと化してしまった。「円安で製造業の国内回帰が進む」などという、夢想としか思えないことも書くようになった。

しかし、私が聞いている限り、そんなことを考えている企業はない。いまさら、日本に工場を戻す製造業などありえない。

日本経済の復活は、あくまで実体経済、企業の生産性の向上、画期的なイノベーション、売れる商品の開発などにかかっている。

為替だけで、日本経済が復活するなどということがありえるわけがないと思うが、どうだろうか。


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